One unit Electric sharing: Vietnam's electricity market has huge potential?
In recent years, with the rapid economic development, the contradiction between power supply and demand in Vietnam has become increasingly prominent. Despite an average annual growth rate of 12-13% over the past five years, electricity production is still in short supply. According to the Power Development Master Plan formulated by the Ministry of Industry, Vietnam's total wind power capacity will grow to 800 MW by 2020, 2,000 MW by 2025, and 6,000 MW by 2030. Market development potential is huge.
According to statistics, in addition to the processing industry, Vietnam's light industry, including food, beverage, textile, light chemical and durable consumer goods and other industries are also growing rapidly, these industries not only greatly increase the industrial electricity consumption, but also greatly increase the contribution output value index per unit of electricity. From 2001 to 2005, the average annual growth rate of industrial electricity consumption in Vietnam reached 18.5%.
From 1995 to 2004, household electricity consumption in Vietnam also grew very rapidly, mainly due to the urbanization and rural electrification process in Vietnam. During this period, 30 million people became electricity users in Vietnam, accounting for 37% of the total population. Although the per capita electricity consumption level of Vietnam's residents, especially these new users, is still very low, less than 20kW•h per person per month, but with the growth of residents' incomes and the popularity of household appliances, the rapid growth of residential electricity consumption will continue for a long time.
In particular, it is worth noting that in the middle-income group, air conditioning and other large appliances are becoming popular, the popularity of these appliances in increasing electricity consumption at the same time, but also the impact on the load rate. The electricity consumption and growth by industry are shown in Table 4. Although Vietnam has a low level of electricity consumption among Southeast Asian countries, the continuous growth of demand in recent years has made power supply increasingly tight.
As an emerging market, Vietnam is experiencing rapid economic growth, mass migration to cities, and rising living standards, all of which have greatly boosted the demand for electricity consumption.
According to the 2019 Vietnam Power System Operation Plan approved by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam, it is planned that the total power generation of Vietnam in 2019 will reach 241 billion KWH of electricity, of which coal power generation still accounts for nearly 50%, about 116.5 billion KWH.
Vietnam plans to generate 265-278 billion KWH of electricity with an installed capacity of 60,000 megawatts by 2020, and 571-700 billion KWH with an installed capacity of 129,500 megawatts by 2030, but in 2018 the total power generation was only 192.1 billion KWH and the installed capacity was only 47,750 megawatts. Vietnam faces challenges in power operation.
First, there is insufficient coal and gas as raw materials for power generation. In 2019, Vietnam was short of 8 million tons of coal for power generation, which needed to be imported from abroad. At the end of 2018, the supply of natural gas in South Kunshan only reached 75% of that in previous years, and it is expected that demand will still exceed supply in 2019.
Second, power generation projects are small and scattered. In 2019, the total installed capacity of new power projects planned to be put into operation by the Ministry of Industry and Trade is 4,292.8 MW, of which only two large projects are the expansion of the coastal thermal power plant Phase III (688 MW) and the Yongxin Thermal Power Plant Phase IV (600 MW), of which the total installed capacity of renewable energy projects is 2,700 MW. It includes solar power plants (1700 MW), wind power plants (137 MW), and small water power plants (837 MW).
Third, the efficiency of renewable energy generation is low. Although renewable energy accounts for more than half of the installed capacity, the Ministry of Industry and trade does not have high expectations for its power supply. Of the 242 billion KWH of planned electricity generation in 2019, renewable energy will contribute only 3.12 billion KWH.
The operation time of renewable energy generation is only 1600 hours per year, while the operation time of coal thermal power plants is 6500 hours per year, electric hot gas is 5500 hours per year, and hydropower plants are 4500-5000 hours per year, and the efficiency of renewable energy generation is only 20%-30%. And at the peak of daily electricity consumption (17:00 to 20:00), solar energy can not generate electricity.
In the case of economic and electricity demand growth at the current rate, it is expected that by 2015,GDP will reach $911 billion, and electricity demand will reach 180TW•h. From 2011 to 2015, the Vietnamese government and EVN will invest 21.1 billion US dollars in power construction, and in 2015, the annual power generation capacity of the power plant will reach 1900TW•h, the maximum power generation output of 31.5GW,220kV and above substations will reach 190, the power transformation capacity of 79095MVA, and the total length of 220kV and above transmission lines will reach 2 1799km.
According to the current power supply structure dominated by water, coal and gas, by 2020, the maximum power output of Vietnam's national power generation can only reach 47GW, which is short of the predicted social demand of 48.6GW. By 2025, the maximum power generation capacity will reach 64GW, but the forecast social demand will reach 71GW.
In order to meet the demand for electricity in the future economic development, the Vietnamese government will alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand by developing nuclear power, importing thermal coal, and purchasing electricity from neighboring countries. Vietnam plans to build nuclear power plants from 2017 and increase the purchase of electricity from neighboring countries. This is a rare opportunity for companies that want to go global.
Some quotes from Point International
